EUR/USD: A Bullish Outlook, But With Caution
The EUR/USD pair has been on a positive trajectory for two consecutive days, climbing to the 1.1830 region during Thursday's Asian session. This upward movement is largely attributed to the US Dollar's (USD) weakened position, which is a result of concerns surrounding US President Donald Trump's unpredictable trade policies.
Technically speaking, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 56 suggests an improving positive momentum, indicating a recovery phase without reaching overbought levels. Additionally, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) line, although marginally above its signal line, hints at a gradual shift towards buyer control rather than an impulsive trend.
However, the intraday move has stalled near the 100-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) on the 4-hour chart. This level now becomes a crucial pivot point for traders, and a breakout above this resistance could lead to further gains towards 1.1860 and then 1.1900. Conversely, immediate support is found at 1.1790, safeguarding the recent higher low structure, followed by 1.1760, which marks the start of the latest recovery leg.
Maintaining a position above 1.1790 is essential to keep the bullish bias intact. A drop below 1.1760, on the other hand, could neutralize the current rebound and lead to deeper consolidation. While the near-term bias leans mildly bullish, traders are advised to wait for a sustained strength above the 100-period SMA on the 4-hour chart before considering any further appreciating moves.
But here's where it gets controversial... Some analysts argue that the current rebound may be short-lived, given the ongoing trade tensions and economic uncertainties. So, is this a temporary blip or a sustainable trend? What do you think? Share your thoughts in the comments and let's discuss!
